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Breakdown recovery in one hour, or half your money back

February 23, 2013

I recently received a flyer in the postbox from one of the roadside recovery firms. In fact, had I not dropped the leaflet, I doubt I would have read it, being already covered, but did so, and something caught my eye.

(The picture above is not the flyer itself, but a screen print from their website containing the same details)

What interested me was: is the offer a good thing for customers? I am not saying it isn’t, but neither am I sure that it is: it all depends, in the same way as the ‘pizzas delivered to your door within half an hour or it is free’ offers (giving away our family use of takeaways) or NHS waiting list problems.

For example, Joe breaks down in some fairly remote area; and then another drive nearby. Who will get treated first, especially if it is touch and go that the breakdown vehicle will be able to reach the first driver within an hour. Far better for the company to treat the second, and let the first exceed the hour, give him £13.50 (on which more later); and similarly when the next car rings it, to should be treated before poor Joe. He can wait: even for hours.

Second, the ad gives some very reliable looking figures on average waiting times…what odds would I give that the average cited is the lower of the mean and median? If ten drivers are helped, with nine arrivals after 59.9 (say 60) min and one after 0.1min, is the average the median, 60, or is it the mean, 30? The skew of the distribution curve can make wonders to averages.

Finally, and I should emphasise that I have nothing against GreenFlag-their advert is no worse than many, I did like the small print that the rates quoted were only achieved by 10% of their online customers. Odds on then that Joe will receive far more than £13.50 for his wait…

From → Maths

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