The US Masters: a sure bet?

Last month, I blogged about the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and the Dutching possibilities for that race.

Yesterday's US Masters in Augusta provided a similar chance.

If, before the last round, you felt that one of the leading three, Brandt Snedeker, 9/4, Adam Scott, 100/30, or Angel Cabrera 9/2 would win, then you could Dutch, as follows

If you felt that, if not one of these three, it might also be the fourth player, Tiger Woods, 6/1, who might win, then you could still Dutch, with a £32 return on £200 staked.

As it was, Adam Scott beat Angela Carbrera on the second play-off hole:

My interest is in the maths: I can intuitively often tell when Dutching is possible, and felt it was here, but haven't yet worked out how to reduce the calculations to a formula. Jane's only comment last night, of course, was 'why are you watching this rubbish'?

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