More on the Masters odds

I have received a question about my recent blog on the Masters odds, and Dutching.

Firstly, as is my wont, an aside at first: my blogs now have a daily readership of sixty, but by far and away the most read blog was my 'cheating your wife with a blonde' post. What does this tell us about what people search the web for?

The question I received was about Dutching as a betting strategy. If you understand that I hardly if ever bet, hardly if ever watch sport, and just like maths, then my answer is 'don't apply it as a strategy'. The spreadsheet below, of Betfred's odds a few hours before the final round, shows that the bookies are laying their bets on a 110% outcome: so that the top three, have a less than 72% chance of winning.

One time in three Dutching the Masters will lose.

This is an over-simplification, but is broadly correct, to the extent that the bookies have good information. Dutching could be considered where you really think one of the top three ( or your chosen selection) will win, or in cases where you want your club to win, but some monetary compensation will salve the pain if your team loses: you have to do the math for the two or more specific teams/runner/, and sometimes you will get the answer you want. But as a dispassionate strategy, I think it won't succeed in the long run.

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