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£1 in every £100: the Unbelievable Truth

The Unbelievable Truth is a BBC Radio 4 programme in which panellists have to give short talks during which they have to smuggle some lies and some truth past their fellow contestants. Their fellow panellists buzz when they think the speaker has lied.

So far, in the 2015 UK Election, we have had two debates: Ed Miliband v David Cameron and a seven leaders debate, Borgen style.

Next, I suggest we have an Unbelievable Truth debate, and let's see who can smuggle the most ridiculous soundbite lies through. The fact-checking charity FullFact.org had a posting testing ten of the facts given in the seven way leaders debate- stating that some were true, whilst others false. Their list didn't comment on one 'fact' David Cameron cited at least once (and if I recall correctly, twice) that rather than raise taxes, as Labour want to do, they can stop the deficit by merely saving £1 in every £100 that Government spends. He then makes the throwaway comment that any business can do this.
The FT records David Cameron as using the £1/£100 quote on another occasion:
Now, in order to try not to get lost in figures- it all depends which fiscal year you take, which estimate, revision or forecast, I will use round(ish) numbers. The UK Budget deficit is around £75bn on spending of £750bn (taxes and other income being about £675bn. (Googling, I also found £84bn and £90bn as the deficit: let's be charitable and stick with the lowest, £75bn.
Government spending is £750bn, so a 1% cut saves £8bn. So on a one year basis, no chance: the deficit will still be about £70bn; and on a two year basis- as per the FT article- again, no chance- the deficit will be about £50bn. Even on a five year basis, the claim is incorrect.
I will be interested to see if David Cameron repeats the claim, and whether his opponents ever pick up on its falseness. Buzzers, please.

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 205

White to play and win

 

FN Barnett v W Nelson 2005

 

Solution

 

Quite a standard solution to today's problem: biff, biff, biff, mate.

1 Ng6+ Kh7[] 2 Nf8+ Kh8[] 3 Qh7+ Nh7[] 4 Ng6 smothered mate.

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 204

Black to play and win


D Collier v M Levitt


Solution


Not too hard today, since the line is linear, and forcing. 1…Rf1+ 2 Kf1 Rh1+ 3 Ng1[] Qd3+ 4 Re2 Qe2 mate.

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 203

White to play and win


A Bickoff v M Rubery 1989

 

Solution

 

The move my hand wanted to play, the move I would play ten times out of ten in blitz, is 1 Nh6!- which turns out to be very good; but in a classical game, I would have more doubts, 'just in case' there was a defence: and I could see myself chickening out by playing the safe, and fairly strong, 1 Rh3.

Back to the best move, 1 Nh6, the easiest line to dispense with is 1…Rf8; then 2 Nf7+ wins the exchange, and white still has the attack. So only 1….gh needs calculating. Then 2 Qg4

 

Nc5 3 Bh6 wins.

I wrote the above before turning to the solution in the book, and before entering the position into Stockfish. Alas, I missed something, as did white in the game. Black did indeed play 1…Rf8 and white did indeed win the exchange by 2 Nf7+, but 2 Rg7!! is far classier.

 

2…Kg7 3 Qg4+ Kh8[] 4 Qg8+!!

Rg8[] 5 Nf7+ Kg7[] 6 Bh6 mate.

 

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 202

White to play and win

 

 

JJ Steenkamp v J Lovemore 1997

 

Solution

 

Fairly standard today: 1 Ng7! is an obvious biff. If 1…Kg7, 2 Bb2; and if 1…Qg7, 2 Rg3; and otherwise the king side is ripped open.

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 201

White to play and win

Find the most convincing way to win

 

A Willenberg v D Bornheim 2005

 

Solution

I muffed this one. Reitstein's rubric, which I didn't give, said that white thought that 1 Bf6 would give an advantage, but wanted more, and found it. I found something, but not it, and had I applied Purdy's due process, I would have found the best move, which in hindsight is also 'obvious'.

First, my line. 1 Rf6! with the principal line 1…gf 2 Qh7+ Kf8[] 3 Qh8+ Ke7[] 4 Bf6 mate.

I thought that was 'it', the solution, and lazily only looked at the better defence 1…Rg5!. Then, 2 Qh7+ gets nowhere, so 2 Bh7+! Kf8[] (2…Kh8? 3 Bg6+ and 4 Rf7+ 1-0) 3 b4! Qe5 (3…Qa7 drops the Bd6: 4 Rd6 and white is a piece up)

4 Rf7+! (not too hard to visualise, since it is a forcing variation, and has to be looked at) 4…Kf7[] 5 Rf1+ Ke7 6 Re1 1-0

So, I was pleased with this long variation, and so turned to the solution, only to see what I had missed. There is a phrase in chess 'long variation, bad variation' and mine is a case in point. Instead, examine all biffs leads you to 1 b4! which diverts the Q, and also means that black can't defend by playing …Rh5: so e.g. 1…Qc8 2 Bf6 and it is all over.

Finally, if instead 1 Bf6, then 1…Rh5 is messy. 2 b4 Rh4 3 bc gf 4 cd Rd4 5 Rad1 and white is better, but the game goes on.

 

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 200

Black to play and win

Mate in 5




J Van den Berg v D Wolf 1989

Solution

 

There is clearly a smothered mate motif, and also back rank mate ideas. Once I saw that the Rf1 was tied to the first dank, 1…Qf2! came to mind, and, as soon as I saw it, the lines clicked into place.

The mate in five follows after 2 Rf2 Rd1+.

If instead 2 Rg1, 2…Qg1+! and after 3 Kg1, Rd1+ 4 Ne1[] Re1 mate.

 

 

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 199

White to play and win

M De Pointe v A Goodman 1967

 

Solution

 

I found a solution , but not the solution.

I chose 1 e5!, which is the 'move my hand wanted to play' and after 1…de, played the inferior 2 Ne4? My line was easy to calculate a long way: 2…Qf4 3 Qf4 ef 4 Nf6+ Kf8[] 5 Nd7+ Ke7 6 Rg7 Kd7[] 7 Rf7+ Kd6 8 Rf4.

That was as far as I got: of course, it is technically winning, but equally, the game goes on. Also, if 2…Q somewhere, then 3 Qg2 Qg6 4 Qh2! is 1-0 because of the threatened Qh8+.

However, after 1….de, 2 Rh7! is far stronger: I just didn't see the Rh7 lift.

 

Reitstein gives 1 Rh7! as the solution, and it is equally good.

 

White missed this idea too, playing 1 Qg2, and the game went on.

 

 

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 198

Black to play and win

White has just played 1 Nf3, covering c2 and g2.

 

 

 

P Hangelbroek v JH Van Dyk 1961

 

Solution

 

The move 1 Ne1 turns white's took into a LPDO, and coupled with the jump-biff Qb7-b1 it isn't too hard to see 1..Nc3! winning at least the exchange: and possibly the a2 pawn.

 

Test your chess: daily chess puzzle # 197

Black to play and win

 

J Tsalicolgou v AN Rubinsztein 1975

 

Solution

 

I got this one wrong, but only in the sense of choosing a -8 move when Stockfish (and black in the game) found a -11 one.

Firstly, mine: 1…Re4! 2 Rd2 Rd2

When Black's position is over-powering. If for instance 3 Qf3 then 3…Rf2+ and either the queen falls to a discovered check if Qe4, or if the rook is captured, at the end of the exchanges the LPDOS Bb2 drops off.

However, 1…Rc1+ scores even higher, and after 2 Bc1 (2 Rc1 Be2 and black wins a piece, with the LPDOS Bb2 dropping off) Qd1+ and mates. In the game, black played 2…Qe2? and drew- strange that he missed Qd1+ having found Rc1+.